ANALYSIS | 16 October 2026

The war with Iran and the disturbances surrounding the streets of Hormus have put pressure on the global energy markets. US President Donald Trump also makes Ukraine responsible for high fuel prices and agrees additional diesel deliveries from Russia. However, the available market data speaks to put the emphasis differently: decisive are the safety of sea routes, the restoration of reliable supply flows and a relaxation of the conflict.

1. The central price driver: War, Logistics and Risk Charges

The availability of crude oil and refinery products, transport capacities, insurance premiums, stocks and the expectations of market participants is also crucial. The streets of Hormus are one of the most important energy sources in the world. Disturbances there can simultaneously reduce delivery volumes, force relocations and increase the costs of tankers and insurance.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on 14 October 2026 that the physical reference price North Sea Dated had risen by US$26.17 per month to an average of US$16.89 per barrel in September. At the time of reporting, the listing was around US$134.

North Sea Dated: US$90.72 in August (calculated), US$16.89 in September and around US$134 in the preparation of the report.
North Sea Dated: US$90.72 in August (calculated), US$16.89 in September and around US$134 in the preparation of the report.

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report – October 2026. August Value calculated from September minus monthly increase; 134 US dollars is a quotation at the time of reporting, no... [truncated for model]